EUROPE'S MOMENT OF TRUTH: DARE SOVEREIGNTY OR PERISH

Europe is at a historic turning point. Donald Trump's re-election as US President in November 2024 marks the definitive end of an era in which the continent was able to settle comfortably in the shadow of American security guarantees. This turning point is forcing the old continent to take stock and radically reorient itself. The time of self-delusion is over.

The myth of the transatlantic partnership

The transatlantic partnership, romanticised for decades as the unshakeable foundation of European security, is now being revealed for what it really always was: an arrangement in which Europe traded its strategic autonomy for military protection. Trump's blatant "America First" policy only exposes what astute observers have long known: American interests will always take precedence over European ones.

The new American president has repeatedly threatened to relativise NATO's assistance obligations and makes no secret of the fact that he is closer to Russia than some European allies. His announcements to impose punitive tariffs on European goods and drastically reduce support for Ukraine are not empty threats. They are the wake-up call that Europe needed.

China's long shadow

While Europe has been living in its postmodern dream world in recent decades, China has consistently worked on its global power position. The New Silk Road, massive investments in future technologies and strategic investments in critical European infrastructure are evidence of a long-term strategy that Europe has nothing comparable to offer.

Europe's naivety in its dealings with China is irresponsible. While Beijing is systematically creating dependencies in Africa and Asia and expanding its technological lead in key areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, Europe is losing itself in internal discussions about cutting red tape and agricultural subsidies.

The existential deficits

Europe's weaknesses are self-inflicted and existential:

Demographic collapse: In an unprecedented demographic decline, European societies are shrinking and ageing rapidly. Germany, Italy and Spain are leading this catastrophic development. Social systems will collapse under this burden unless radical reforms are introduced.

Technological backwardness: The European digital economy plays no role globally. Not a single European company can compete with the American or Chinese technology giants. Dependence on American software and Chinese hardware is becoming a strategic trap.

Energetic vulnerability: The hasty exit from conventional energy sources combined with dependence on Russian gas supplies has manoeuvred Europe into a dangerous energy trap. The green transformation process is becoming an economic acid test, while the USA is becoming independent through fracking and China is becoming sustainable through massive investment in renewable energies.

Security policy impotence: European defence budgets remain inadequate despite all the lip service after the war in Ukraine. The fragmentation of the defence industry leads to inefficiencies and a lack of effectiveness. Europe is not in a position to guarantee its own security, let alone act as a global force for order.

The moral dilemma

Europe likes to define itself by its values: human rights, democracy, the rule of law. However, this moral claim regularly collides with realpolitik necessities. The European refugee pact with Turkey, the tacit acceptance of Libyan internment camps and the selective outrage over human rights violations depending on the economic importance of the country reveal a deep gulf between aspiration and reality.

This moral ambiguity undermines Europe's credibility as a normative power. Either Europe consistently stands by its values, even if it hurts economically, or it refrains from moralising.

The enemy within

The greatest threat to Europe comes from within. Right-wing populist movements in France, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands are instrumentalising legitimate concerns of the population and offering simple solutions to complex problems. Their success is favoured by the failure of the established parties, which have lost touch with the reality of life for many citizens.

European cohesion is crumbling. Solidarity in the refugee crisis or in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic was temporary at best. National egotisms are becoming ever more apparent and are being fuelled by an increasingly Eurosceptic public.

The path to European sovereignty

If Europe wants to survive in this new world order, it must make radical decisions:

1. European Defence Union: The time of national armies is over. There is no alternative to an integrated European armed force with a unified command structure, a common defence industry and a nuclear deterrent capability.
2. Digital sovereignty: Europe must invest massively in future technologies. A European cloud infrastructure, its own microprocessors and a sovereign AI strategy are vital for survival.
3. Energy independence: A pragmatic energy mix that reconciles security of supply and climate protection must replace ideological trench warfare. This includes a reassessment of nuclear energy.
4. Institutional reform: The European Union must become more capable of acting. The principle of unanimity in foreign and security policy paralyses the continent and must be overcome.
5. Migration Pact: Europe needs a coherent migration strategy that harmonises humanitarian obligations with the interests of the host societies. Effective external border protection and targeted skilled immigration must go hand in hand.

The inconvenient truth

Europe faces a choice: either it overcomes national egoisms and develops into a genuine geopolitical power with strategic autonomy, or it becomes a pawn between the USA, China and Russia. The path to European sovereignty will be painful and will require sacrifices that are easily vulnerable to populist attacks.

The political elites have a duty to come clean with their citizens: the comfortable post-war order is irretrievably over. Europe will either be strong together or perish individually. Donald Trump's re-election does not mark the end of the Western alliance - it forces its reinvention at eye level.

Time is of the essence. In a world increasingly characterised by power politics rather than rules-based governance, Europe cannot afford another decade of procrastination. The decisions that will be made in the next few years will determine whether Europe remains an active shaper of the world order or degenerates into a museum of past greatness.

The categorical imperative for Europe is: dare sovereignty or perish. This requires more than Sunday speeches and euphonious summit declarations. It needs political leaders with courage, vision and the willingness to speak uncomfortable truths. The future of Europe is at stake - and with it the idea of a world order that favours cooperation over confrontation.